Instituto Escolhas proposes restoring 12 million hectares through new governance, job programs and the use of resources from the Brazilian federal agricultural financing program and public banks to unlock a potential R$776.5 billion in revenue and generate significant climate benefits 

Amid political maneuvering ahead of the 2026 elections, the environmental debate is taking on new dimensions with the release of proposals by Instituto Escolhas aimed at the productive restoration of Brazil’s forests. The think tank has presented a set of five measures that could transform 12 million hectares of deforested land into a source of jobs, income, food production and reduced greenhouse gas emissions. 

This goal is not new: it reflects Brazil’s commitment under the Paris Agreement, made in 2015, to restore 12 million hectares of native vegetation. Delivering on that commitment will require coordinated actions, resources and public policies in the coming decades. 

The think tank’s contribution to the debate focuses on how to turn this promise into reality, as well as the scale of investment and political coordination required. According to the study, the productive restoration of 12 million hectares has the potential to: 

• create 5 million jobs; 

• generate R$776.5 billion in net revenue; 

• produce 1 billion cubic meters of timber; 

• produce 156 million metric tons of food; 

• remove 4.3 billion metric tons of CO₂ from the atmosphere. 

For these figures to move beyond optimistic projections and become state policy, the institute estimates that R$228 billion in investment will be required. 

Political coordination is lacking, economic potential is abundant 

According to the think tank’s analysis, Brazil currently lacks economic incentives, institutional capacity and, above all, political coordination to ensure that the commitment made internationally is fulfilled domestically. Without a planned government effort, the country risks continued degradation of areas with restoration potential, losing economic opportunities and climate leadership. 

“No government alone will be able to deliver the scale of forest restoration that Brazil needs. The private sector has capital and an operational presence that can accelerate this process. Through Vale’s Forest Goal, we are investing in applied knowledge, agroforestry systems and other productive models that can be replicated by different stakeholders, acting as a complementary force to help transform commitments into positive economic, social and environmental outcomes,” says Juliana Vilhena, Fundo Vale’s strategy, management and impact manager. 

Five key measures to unlock forest restoration 

The document outlines five actions combining institutional changes, credit allocation and employment policies:  

1. Create a National Forest Restoration Authority 

The main proposal is to establish a National Forest Restoration Authority, reporting directly to the office of the president. This authority would have the powers and resources to coordinate actions among ministries, states, municipalities, public banks and the private sector; align climate, agriculture, regional development and infrastructure policies; monitor targets; oversee project implementation; and avoid fragmented efforts. 

The rationale is that without strong central leadership, restoration programs will remain fragmented, small in scale and limited in impact. 

2. Focus also on arid lands and desertification 

Another measure proposes including the restoration of arid lands and regions undergoing desertification among the federal government’s priorities. This directly affects areas already under pressure from climate change, especially in Brazil’s semi-arid region, where soil degradation is reducing productivity, cutting rural communities’ income and heightening people’s vulnerability to extreme droughts. 

By integrating these regions into the restoration agenda, the proposal aims to combine environmental restoration with water security and social resilience. 

3. Develop employment programs for restoration, with professional training 

The think tank also suggests creating employment programs focused on forest restoration, including workforce training and skills development, incentives to hire local workers and integration with employment and income policies. 

The idea is to turn restoration into a driver of productive inclusion, especially in rural areas with limited economic dynamism. Rather than simply reforesting, the focus is on creating a new value chain linked to sustainable timber production, agroforestry and forest-based production systems. 

4. Allocate 20% of Plano Safra’s resources to restoring deforested areas 

Plano Safra, the Brazilian federal government’s agricultural credit program, is currently the primary source of financing for agribusiness. Allocating part of these resources would encourage producers to invest in productive restoration, such as agroforestry systems, silvopastoral systems and sustainable land management; make restoration financially viable rather than merely an environmental cost; and align agricultural policy with the country’s climate commitments. 

5. Reserve 10% of public bank credit for restoration 

The fifth measure proposes allocating 10% of the annual lending volume of four major public financial institutions—BNDES, Banco do Nordeste, Banco da Amazônia and Banco do Brasil—to the restoration of deforested areas. 

This support would include preferential interest rates, non-reimbursable funding (grants and support funds) and dedicated credit lines for productive restoration projects. 

By combining affordable credit with direct incentives, the aim is to unlock large-scale private investment and attract producers, companies and cooperatives to the restoration agenda. 

The package of measures is part of Instituto Escolhas’ “2026 Elections” series, in which the organization presents proposals to contribute to public debate in this election year. Learn more about this and other proposals here.